000K  utf8
1100  2020$c2020-08-21
1500  eng
2050  urn:nbn:de:gbv:27-dbt-20230516-050512-004
2051  10.1038/s41598-020-70901-6
3000  Harris, R. M. B.
3010  Fischer, C.
3010  Foeckler, F.
3010  Henle, K.
3010  Horchler, P.
3010  Loeffler, F.
3010  Rumm, A.
3010  Scholz, M.
4000  Biological responses to extreme weather events are detectable but difficult to formally attribute to anthropogenic climate change  [Harris, R. M. B.]
4060  14 Seiten
4209  As the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts, heatwaves and floods have increased over recent decades, more extreme biological responses are being reported, and there is widespread interest in attributing such responses to anthropogenic climate change. However, the formal detection and attribution of biological responses to climate change is associated with many challenges. We illustrate these challenges with data from the Elbe River floodplain, Germany. Using community turnover and stability indices, we show that responses in plant, carabid and mollusc communities are detectable following extreme events. Community composition and species dominance changed following the extreme flood and summer heatwave of 2002/2003 (all taxa); the 2006 flood and heatwave (molluscs); and after the recurring floods and heatwave of 2010 and the 2013 flood (plants). Nevertheless, our ability to attribute these responses to anthropogenic climate change is limited by high natural variability in climate and biological data; lack of long-term data and replication, and the effects of multiple events. Without better understanding of the mechanisms behind change and the interactions, feedbacks and potentially lagged responses, multiple-driver attribution is unlikely. We discuss whether formal detection and/or attribution is necessary and suggest ways in which understanding of biological responses to extreme events could progress.
4950  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70901-6$xR$3Volltext$534
4950  https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:27-dbt-20230516-050512-004$xR$3Volltext$534
4961  https://www.db-thueringen.de/receive/dbt_mods_00057403
5051  500
5550  Attribution
5550  Climate-change ecology