PROBABILISTIC LIMIT STATE ANALYSIS OF MONUMENTAL STRUCTURE BY MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

The concept is presented of the sensitivity analysis of the limit state of the structure with respect to selected basic variables. The sensitivity is presented in the form of the probability distribution of the limit state of the structure. The analysis is performed by the problem-oriented Monte Carlo simulation procedure. The procedure is based on the problem's definition of the elementary event, as a structural limit state. Thus the sample space consists of limit states of the structure. Defined on the sample space the one-dimensional random multiplier is introduced. This multiplier refers to the dominant basic variable (group of variables) of the problem. Numerical procedure results in the set of random numbers. Normalized relative histogram of this set is an estimator of the PDF of the limit state of the structure. Estimators of reliability, or the probability of failure are statistical characteristics of this histogram. The procedure is illustrated by the example of sensitivity analysis of the serviceability limit state of monumental structure. It is the colonnade of Licheń Basilica, situated in central Poland. Limit state of the structure is examined with reference to the upper deck horizontal deflection. Wind actions are taken as dominant variables. An assumption is made that the wind load intensities acting on the lower and on the upper storey of the colonnade, respectively, are identically distributed, but correlated random variables. Three correlation variants of these variables are considered. Relevant limit state histograms are analysed thereafter. The paper ends with the conclusions referring to the method and some general remarks on the fully probabilistic design.