SOFTWARE FOR PROJECT RELIABILITY ESTIMATION AND RISK EVALUATION

Beran, Václav; Hromada, E.

The contribution presents a model that is able to simulate construction duration and cost for a building project. This model predicts set of expected project costs and duration schedule depending on input parameters such as production speed, scope of work, time schedule, bonding conditions and maximum and minimum deviations from scope of work and production speed. The simulation model is able to calculate, on the basis of input level of probability, the adequate construction cost and time duration of a project. The reciprocal view attends to finding out the adequate level of probability for construction cost and activity durations. Among interpretive outputs of the application software belongs the compilation of a presumed dynamic progress chart. This progress chart represents the expected scenario of development of a building project with the mapping of potential time dislocations for particular activities. The calculation of a presumed dynamic progress chart is based on an algorithm, which calculates mean values as a partial result of the simulated building project. Construction cost and time models are, in many ways, useful tools in project management. Clients are able to make proper decisions about the time and cost schedules of their investments. Consequently, building contractors are able to schedule predicted project cost and duration before any decision is finalized.

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Beran, Václav / Hromada, E.: SOFTWARE FOR PROJECT RELIABILITY ESTIMATION AND RISK EVALUATION. 2006.

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