The Use of Activity Chain Models to Analyse Stochastic Travel Demand
For analysis and planing of transport networks detailed information concerning travel sequences is required. The paper examines an activity chain model to determine stochastic travel demand which individual generates in order to participate in activity or sequence of activities over the day. The transition from one activity to another depends on the activity participation decision, which is made sequentially and is constrained in space and time. Activity chains derived from travel survey data are used as a base to develop a more realistic model than conventional discrete trip models. Probabilistic concepts and statistical procedures are used to estimate characteristics of travel demand such as the number of daily out-of-home activities and transition probability from one activity to another participated by homogeneous behavioural groups. In addition, the paper compares the model for two different sized towns.